The Financial Times is a great paper, and it’s pink, so I often carry it around to look smart. Last week, it featured an article on wine—about how the world is producing too much of it, prices are dropping, and a lot of it is spoiling. Global consumption is down, and too much money has been pumped into business. Is this not a startling parallel to the art world, where there’s too much supply and too little demand?
The art audience seems surprised that certain galleries have closed and that some galleries have dropped out of art fairs. I am surprised that so many galleries have remained open, especially in an environment that is as close to an art-market recession as we’ve seen in a while.
Then there is the art-fair conundrum, in which some galleries are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Art fairs are expensive, but if you don’t show up, you’ll never get lucky and make that sale or meet that new client who could make your entire year. If you really think galleries are all cashing in and selling out at these events, though, you are out of touch. (For 14 years, my gallery exhibited in many art fairs.)
Try doing the math on Miami Basel week last December. Art Basel had about 280 galleries, Art Miami 160, Untitled 160, NADA 140 and Scope 100. That comes to around 840 galleries. Now, if we figure that each gallery brought an average of 25 works, that gets us to 21,000 pieces that were insured, crated, forklifted into massive tents or convention centers, and then hung on the walls by teams of handlers. And that is just one week of many.
Enjoying an artwork by Damien Hirst at Art Basel Miami Beach in December 2025. Photo by Christopher Pillitz/ Getty Images
The art market has been ballooning for a good while. Collectors are full. They may add, but they don’t need more. Of course, art collecting isn’t only about money. It’s a passion, a pleasure, and an indulgence. True art collectors are a bit like compulsive gamblers. (Have you seen Uncut Gems?) They just can’t stop, even when they know they should. But they are the exceptions.
I recently watched an interview with veteran advisor Allan Schwartzman by journalist Judith Benhamou. Perhaps Schwartzman was caught off guard, as he nervously quipped that “the art market is tired . . . collectors of the established generation are tired; they’ve bought most of what they wanted to own.” He’s right. What happens to all that work they no longer want? Perhaps they can give it to institutions? Not so fast. He added: “Museums have become more selective in what they are prepared to accept.”
I don’t know many collectors who have stopped buying altogether, but there’s no doubt that they are slowing down. Schwarzman added that, for artists whose primary shows used to sell out, “…buying has slowed down tremendously” if they are unsupported at auction. In summary, tulip buying is over; it was fun while it lasted.
There are far too many galleries and far too many artists. Just like in the world of wine, there’s been tremendous overproduction, and much of it has or will go bad. Some good small galleries do find overlooked careers or discover amazing new talents—the needles in the haystack. But let’s face it, we all need to step back and think about how few artists have really moved the needle, versus the many burnouts we’ve seen in the sizzling art pan.
The 2017 sale of Leonardo’s Salvator Mundi (ca. 1500) at Christie’s in New York. Photo: Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images.
Mega art trophies can still rise in value, but they are very rare. Last week in Brussels a smooth young gallerist said to me, “It’s all fine, if you have great things, they will always sell.” He’s right, and I surprised myself by stretching to buy an amazing work in his show. I’m an addict; a slowdown isn’t a bad thing for me. Less can be more. Here’s to less art and better shows, at least for a while.
I am certain the collecting cycle will restart. It always does. And then the art world will grow bigger than ever. Yes, I see this art world of yesterday dwarfed by what is coming in the not so distant future. I think that some prices will hold and even go up because money is worth less and less to some. Think about what has happened with tech stocks. Many people have made absurd amounts of money: Numbers so astronomical that they were literally unthinkable when I was in graduate school a couple decades ago. That’s why $450 million for the Salvator Mundi doesn’t look so crazy today, especially now that Leonard Lauder’s Klimt sold for $236 million. Is it worth that? Maybe not to you or me, but when you can buy anything in the world, sometimes you do.
Over the past two years I have met more young people than ever who are obsessed with the art world. There is a constant stream of questions about where to work and how to get a job. I also have noticed a major Instagram and TikTok phenomenon. A younger generation is posting gallery visits and openings nonstop, and there are flocks of young people all dressed up for the occasion, taking selfies. When they come of age, they are going to send this world to new heights and expand what we’ve known and seen. The future will be bright when we get there, of that I am certain.
Here is where predictions get tricky. My feeling is: The trend is your friend but also your enemy. If masterpieces by the biggest names of the most recent cycle, like a word painting by Christopher Wool or a joke painting by Richard Prince can now sell for half of what they once did, nothing is safe. That doesn’t mean they aren’t still part of art history; it just means that’s not where the flow of money is headed.
A DAEM watch bearing art by Jean-Michel Basquiat. Photo by Slaven Vlasic/Getty Images for DAEM
The Basquiat phenomenon is an interesting, and telling, example of what to expect. Now I see so many young people tattooing little Basquiat crowns on their arms that it’s ridiculous. This brand has crossed over into a mainstream phenomenon and into the world of posthumous prints and T-shirts. I’ve heard that the Keith Haring estate makes over $15 million a year on licensing alone. When I tell stories of meeting Jean-Michel or Keith, I feel like a purple dinosaur from the past. The future is about branding, influencers, and trends. Watch what Christian Dior and Louis Vuitton are using for promotion or what Swatch puts on its watches. I used to disregard this as just merchandise, but there’s staying power in it, and it holds a clue to what’s in store.
The future art world will be much bigger than we imagine. You might not feel it today, but it’s a certainty. The great artists will always be remembered and collected, though a new wave of collectors will decide what’s “great.” In the world of wine, consumption is down, but in the world of art, consumption is inevitably going to rise—and soon enough, the money will follow. But for now, the next time you see 20,000-plus works for sale in a single week, don’t be surprised if many of them go to spoil.